Pakistan’s solar PV module imports have skyrocketed in recent years, reflecting the country’s ambitious push toward renewable energy. However, a puzzling gap has emerged: while Pakistan imported approximately 27 GW of PV modules between 2020 and 2024, only about 3 GW of capacity is officially accounted for as installed and grid-connected. The big question is—where did the remaining 24 GW of PV modules go?

Let’s unravel this mystery while diving into Pakistan’s booming solar market and the factors shaping its development.

Pakistan’s Solar Potential and Growing Demand

Situated in South Asia, Pakistan enjoys abundant solar energy resources with high insolation levels year-round. This has positioned solar as a key component of the country’s energy transition strategy. Several factors have driven the sharp increase in PV imports:

1. Declining Solar Costs: The global decrease in solar panel prices has made solar power more accessible.
2. Energy Crisis: Frequent power outages and rising electricity prices have pushed industries and households to seek alternative energy solutions.
3. Dependence on Imports: With limited domestic manufacturing capacity, Pakistan relies heavily on Chinese solar module exports, which surged to 12.52 GW in the first half of 2024 alone.

The Mystery of the Missing PV Modules

1. Phased Installations

One plausible explanation for the unaccounted modules is the phased nature of solar project implementation. While Pakistan’s solar demand is estimated to reach 12 GW in 2024, many large-scale solar farms and commercial installations are still under construction or awaiting grid connection.

• Time Lag: Solar projects often involve delays between importation, installation, and grid connectivity. This discrepancy creates a temporary mismatch in reported capacity.
• Future Projections: Analysts expect the official installed capacity to rise significantly as these projects come online.

2. Unregistered Rooftop and Off-Grid Systems

Not all solar installations are captured in the official statistics, particularly small-scale and off-grid systems:

• Industrial Rooftops: A 2024 remote sensing study by Atlas identified 443 solar projects in industrial areas, adding up to 1.4–2.8 GW of capacity. Many of these projects operate independently of the national grid.
• Residential Installations: Rising electricity costs have driven homeowners to install low-cost solar systems, often using B-grade or lower-quality modules. These installations frequently bypass formal regulatory frameworks and grid integration.

3. Stockpiling by Distributors

To ensure stable supply chains, distributors and developers often maintain large inventories of solar panels. This is especially true given:

• Anticipated Tariffs: The potential for higher import duties on solar modules in the 2024–2025 fiscal budget prompted many businesses to pre-stock inventory.
• Supply Chain Stability: Stockpiling helps companies avoid delays during peak installation periods.

Challenges Facing Pakistan’s Solar Growth

Despite its promising solar potential, Pakistan’s solar market faces several obstacles:

1. Grid Infrastructure: Weak and outdated grid infrastructure limits the ability to integrate solar energy efficiently.
2. Policy Uncertainty: While solar enjoys political support, inconsistent policies—such as sudden tariff changes—can deter investors.
3. Quality Concerns: The prevalence of substandard solar panels in the market may undermine long-term performance and investor confidence.

The Bigger Picture: Opportunities in Pakistan’s Solar Market

A Thriving Energy Transition

Pakistan’s solar PV imports underscore a significant shift toward clean energy. The country’s ongoing energy crisis—characterized by load shedding and high tariffs—creates a fertile ground for solar expansion.

• Carbon Neutral Goals: As global pressure to reduce emissions intensifies, solar’s cost-effectiveness makes it a prime candidate for Pakistan’s energy transformation.
• Industrial Demand: Energy-intensive sectors like textiles and manufacturing are increasingly adopting rooftop solar to cut costs and ensure uninterrupted operations.

Growth Projections

With strong government support, falling module prices, and increasing consumer awareness, Pakistan is projected to become a leading solar market in the region.

Pakistan’s solar mystery isn’t so much a question of missing modules as it is a reflection of a rapidly evolving market. As installations catch up with imports, the country is poised to unlock the full potential of its solar investments, positioning itself as a key player in the global renewable energy movement. For now, the missing 24 GW stands as a symbol of untapped promise, waiting to be realized.